With the Apple iPhone launched, who’s next to enter the ring and claim victory in the all-out Mobile Device Battle Royale?

So the iPhone has been out for a few months now, the supply has met the demand, happy cell phone users abound, so what’s next? While the bravado from Steve Jobs and Apple is not likely to be repeated, there are several other brands who could launch a mobile device and create similar icons. Here are a few potentials:

Dell
Dell has technically entered the mobile market by offering integrated EVDO or HSDPA data chipsets as part of the notebook computer. They entered the mobile music player/PDA market and bowed out. The company can write a book about creating the mobile computing market. And as the computing platform is shrinks from setting it on your lap to holding it in your palm, they will face quite a bit of competition from HTC. Dell’s relationship with Microsoft and Linux gives them quite a few options for the OS. They also have a large customer base of enterprise customers which could be ripe for a Dell mobile device.

In an interview by Edward F. Moltzen, CMP Channel, of Michael Dell, the question of a Dell mobile phone was brought up:

CRN: Apple is set to come out with its iPhone in the next few weeks, perhaps next month. What’s your thinking about that? Is it a competitive threat? Will we see a dPhone, a Dell phone or anything of that nature?

DELL: When you look at the space that exists between, let’s say, a cell phone and a PC, there are all sorts of products that are put out there, proposed, experimented. Some of them have gone on to relatively nice success. But many haven’t. It’s sort of an area of great experimentation.

Nobody knows exactly what the right device is. It’s not a two-inch screen, it’s not a 15-inch screen. There are all sorts of tests in there. There are some reasonably successful products. It’s an area we’re paying increasing attention to. I wouldn’t look for anything in the short term for us there, but we are certainly looking at it, as there is dramatic growth in next-generation wireless broadband networks. People want to take the Internet with them. It’s something that’s very interesting to us.
Source: CRN Interview: Dell Chairman & CEO Michael Dell, 8:00 AM EDT Wed. May. 16, 2007

Nintendo
Nintendo has a long history of portable computing with its Gameboy line. A lot has changed from the black and white low resolution LCD with a cross controller and two buttons and a cable to connect two devices together. Nintendo now sports a wireless bluetooth connection and could easily morph it’s next installment with a WiFi and cellular mobile connectivity. Network gaming as well as downloading software from a service can also be benefits to encourage addiction. While they seem like an unlikely candidate to build a mobile phone, I am sure it is on someone’s whiteboard and roadmap at Nintendo. The active development platform is geared towards gaming, but could easily be opened up for application development. A few weeks ago, on GigaOM shared some similar thinking:

But now comes the iPhone, loaded with features and still riding heavy buzz, pushing into the game space, Nintendo’s territory. How should they respond? Well, the DS already comes equipped with a microphone and wireless connectivity; add a Skype-type application, and the two systems would be in more direct competition. (With lower price and greater install base giving DS the edge.)
Source: GigaOM: Nintendo DS and iPhone on a collision course

It would be an interesting crossover/intersection point when the “game console companies” decided to begin to target other applications aside from gaming. The Nintendo Wii offers Weather and messaging capability as a start. Purely by install based only, Nintendo could outpace the Apple iPhone.

Nokia N-Gage
Nokia has been tinkering at merging its dominance in the mobile phone market with portable gaming for almost 4 years (N-Gage first launched on Oct. 7, 2003). While it has undergone a few incarnations (N-Gage, N-Gage QD, and N-Gage QD Silver Ed.), it never proved to take off unlike the Nintendo Gameboy/DS series or Sony PSP. I suppose true portable gamers still like the brand and titles that with “traditional gaming companies” even though Nokia has the Symbian S60 platform and had cellular connectivity via the GSM chipset. Partly to blame is the timing of all this, as Nokia perhaps was ahead of its time for mobile phone games took off on a variety of platforms, and not exclusively on the N-Gage. Java and BREW are also software platform alternatives that also added to the clutter and confusion about all the portable gaming choices out there. Nevertheless, Nokia is still considered a pioneer for having the concept right, just a market timing and execution problem. Relative to Nintendo and Sony, Nokia did not have the same caché and consumer marketing savvy. Neglecting the the North American market proved dangerous for the success and unit sales, but that can be attributed to the sales channel of going through then Cingular or T-Mobile, and some limited distribution with Electronics Boutique and GameStop. These are extremely limited in comparison to Amazon, Best Buy, ToysRus and other retailers/e-tailers that can move volumes. Another hurdle to overcome is the extremely hypercritical reviewing process by analysts, gamers and bloggers who rip any console or game apart the moment it’s available. If it can withstand the rabid gamer criticism, along with titles to select from, then it will be great to see the unit sales climb. Unfortunately, after much hype, it was not even close to meeting expectations.

But the experiment has not deterred Nokia. It’s new strategy of enabling more handsets and expanding the software, wooing game houses, seems to be a smarter play for Nokia. Instead of focusing efforts of a single mobile device, use the catalog of existing and upcoming handsets to tout the gaming features. Set to launch in November 2007, I, like many others will be watching closely to see how this next salvo for portable gaming will connect.

Sony PSP
Sony. Playstation. PSP. These three words are enough to conjure volumes of pictures in one’s mind. Aside from the lackluster sales of the PS3, the PSP has been a huge hit. Lots of titles. The ability to play movies via the optical drive (UMD). Memory stick expandability. Even a camera, GPS receiver and Digital TV receiver attachments. IrDA and WiFi connectivity. Hmmm, sounds like the making of a metamorphosis in disguise. The PSP also has a web browser built-in and an RSS reader. All that is needed for the next generation PSP is a mobile chipset, bluetooth and it’s off to the races. Like Nokia N-Gage, the Sony PSP is a serious contender for mobile phone/gaming console. I wonder what the political impact and organizational dysfunction would occur if Sony Entertainment was competing with SonyEricsson Mobile Communications (SEMC). Convergence is still happening and who knows what the stable model will look like.
Microsoft Zune
More Microsoft grumblings. While Microsoft WM6 is forging ahead, the Zune as a phone sends a loud signal to licensees of the WM platform: Co-opetition.

While the company has been playing it hot and cold during the past few months, it looks like Microsoft might have some sort of iPhone competitor on its roadmap after all. At this week’s Citigroup technology conference in New York, Mindy Mount, corporate vice president and CFO of the Microsoft’s entertainment and device division, said that it’s not “unreasonable” to expect a photo and music-centric Windows Mobile device with a touchscreen in the near future. Users “tend to have one phone for personal as well as work [use],” Mount said. “Being able to do pictures and music is something that consumers are going to want, so it’s a natural thing for us to want in our product roadmap.”

Source: Daily Tech Rag

Conclusion
So what does this all look like and mean? Well, pick your partners and distribution channels wisely. Do a lot of focus groups and internal product reviews. Then do some more. Consumers are getting increasingly critical and savvy about what they want with the portable-mobile-gaming-multimedia-life-altering devices. Retailers, e-tailers and Mobile Operators are all battling for the unit sale and subscription. And lastly, locking down and fostering the development community is just as important as the gamers. Nurture the entire mobile software development lifecycle, don’t ignore a single link in the ever-growing chain.

It was on 7 September 1987 that 15 operators from 13 countries signed a memorandum of understanding that led to the development of the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM), the first pan-European mobile standard and, subsequently, the first global mobile standard.

“The 1987 agreement is widely regarded as the foundation of today’s global mobile-phone industry and the birth of one of the greatest technological achievements of our age,” said Rob Conway, chief executive of the GSM Association, on Thursday.

Source: GSMA

In celebration, the GSMA has put together 20 Facts about the past twenty years:

1. There are 2.5 billion GSM connections worldwide
2. There are 1.2 million new GSM connections every day
3. In 2006, cellular services accounted for 1.6% of the global economy
4. More than 1 billion mobile phones will be sold this year
5. Mobile operators have spent more than $234 billion building GSM and 3GSM** networks since 2002
6. More than 80% of the world’s population are covered by GSM networks
7. The world’s best selling phone is the Nokia 1100 which has sold more than 200 million units
8. Nearly 7 billion text messages are sent every day*
9. The first text message was sent in 1992. The msg was ‘merry xmas’
10. The world’s biggest GSM markets are China (445m), Russia (160m) and India (137m)
11. All 220 countries have GSM or 3GSM** networks operating today
12. There are more than 150m 3GSM** connections
13. 85% of the world’s mobile connections are GSM
14. The world will reach 4 billion mobile connections in Q1 2010
15. 350 million people will have access to wireless e-mail by 2010
16. Over 60 countries have launched Mobile Broadband (HSPA) networks
17. People spend 40% more time on mobile calls than they did in 2000
18. Annual mobile advertising spend will be $14 billion in 2011
19. It took 12 years to get to 1 billion GSM connections, and just thirty months to get to 2 billion
20. 64% of mobile users are in emerging markets***

Sources:
1,2,10,11,12,13,17,19,20 Wireless Intelligence 6,16 GSMA 3 GSMA/Wireless Intelligence.
4 “Gartner Says Worldwide Mobile Phone Sales Grew 17 Per Cent in Second Quarter of 2007″, August 2007
5 Gartner – Forecast Summary: Mobile Network Infrastructure, Worldwide, 2004-2011; May 2007
Forecast Summary: Mobile Network Infrastructure, Worldwide, 2003-2010; January 2007;
Forecast: Mobile Network Infrastructure, Worldwide, 2002-2009; October 2005
15 “A Democratisation Process Will Bring Wireless E-Mail to the Masses, Says Gartner” July 2007
7 Nokia 8 Informa 9 MDA 18 Strategy Analytics
* Data from Q1, 2007
** 3GSM refers to W-CDMA and HSPA
*** Emerging markets listed on GSM World: http://www.gsmworld.com/emh/emerging_markets.html
Whilst every care is taken to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this material, the facts and estimates stated are based on
information and sources that, while we believe them to be reliable, are not guaranteed. In particular, it should not be relied upon as the sole
source of reference in relation to the subject matter.
No liability can be accepted by the GSM Association or Wireless Intelligence, its members, directors or employees for any loss occasioned
to any person or entity acting or failing to act as a result of anything contained in or omitted from the content of this material, or our
conclusions as stated. Wireless Intelligence has no obligation to update or amend the research or to let anyone know if its opinions change
materially. GSM refers to the GSM family of technologies, which includes GSM, WCDMA and HSPA.

Rumors can magically appear and fly faster that Superman, but the next iPhone from Apple cannot be built instantly. The brief rumor from JP Morgan about an iPhone mini spread like wildfire, but turned out to be contrived.Or was it?Digging from another angle, it is more than just rumors about the next Apple iPhone. Semiconductor companies are jockeying for orders from Apple on the next iPhone. From the LCD display, wireless chipsets, flash memory, and EMS companies would love to fill their manufacturing lines with Apple products and they are getting equally aggressive to win business with Apple. My best guess is that a new iPhone will hit the market within the next 6 months, possible Christmas or at the annual WWDC in January. And if it is not actually available, an announcement will definitely be made.

So how can I substantiate my rumors? I only have the past history of Apple and it’s product launches to know that they do not stop at Rev 1 of any product. Just for the iPod, there are over a dozen models! (This includes the custom versions, such as the U2 iPod and PRODUCT RED) So based on this somewhat scientific analysis, another iPhone is coming. I am not sure a mini or nano version will is next, but if I had to make an educated guess, I hope it involves HSDPA, more memory, and a slew of applications.

Still looking for free WiFi in public places? Frankly, the more WiFi becomes available, the more people need to monetize on it. So I finally broke down and joined the class of workers that have multiple wireless devices. Not counting my notebook computer which has WiFi, IrDA and Bluetooth, I purchased an HP iPAQ 6515. To extend my connectivity to not just coffee shops, airport lounges, I also pickup up a Novatel Merlin U730 HSDPA data card. Now that I have it, I can end my tethered fixed wireless mobility. It was seeming to be a problem particularly since providing my credit card information each time I would visit a new location as well as the number of WiFi profiles I had to keep was starting to be a bit of a headache.

The tradeoffs that I have to make are the fact that i have to carry another card with me which shortens my battery life. I also need to be content that my bandwidth will through a smaller pipe and that signal strength is more important with the data card than standard WiFi access points. With respect to my PDAphone, I will have to carry another AC adapter for recharging another device, and keep track of another device. The price of blogging about and using mobile technology! Some might ask why I did not use the iPAQ as my main phone; initially, I thought that was a good idea, but some of the use cases were a bit untenable. One example was talking on a conference call, which having to send and receive as well as sift through my email. Even with a bluetooth headset, so I could look at the screen, a voice and data connection just didn’t work very well. And then there was my somewhat odd feeling when I would attend social events in the evening and weekend and have to carry a rather bulky PDA instead of a more slim and “less jacket/pants pocket bulging handset.” So far though, the voice quality and the GPS on the iPAQ has been better than expect. Even using my bluetooth headset with it works quite well. Taking pictures with it has been a bit of a challenge, because of the awkward controls, holding it steady to not ge to fuzzy image took some getting used to. While I become even more connected, in the coming months, I will try to carefully monitor my usage patterns to see two things: 1. How dependent I become to be connected anywhere I go and 2. Will I suffer withdrawal if I cannot connect or don’t connect for extended periods of time. While it all sounds great, behavioral changes are bound to occur.

Wireless is a confusing thing. We are bombarded by so many technologies, acronyms, brands, products, how can we make sense of it all? Why do we need to make sense of it all? I might be a bit biased since I am more of a software person, but as a consumer of wireless technology, I just want to know a three things:

1. Is wireless available where I am
2. Is my device compatible with the wireless technology
3. How much does it cost to use it

Ideally, the first item should reach ubiquity in densely populated areas. The second point is rather tricky, since there are *so many* competing standards, and a lot of devices to harness. While there are a few companies who tackle both the hardware and software aspects of wireless, more often, the advanced in both areas are somewhat divergent.It seems that we are facing a chicken and egg problem each time with wireless. Take for example the case of downloading ringtones or games, circa 2001. The networks could handle the data with 2G and 2.5G networks. But the handsets were not capable or not launched yet. Also, the software to manage and handle the downloads were not in place to consistently or successfully create a business. Now, just a few years later, downloading content from your mobile phone has reached near ubiquity; operators, content providers and others in the ecosystem are generating significant revenue (ringtones alone generates $5B annually). Another aspect is the alliances and corporate directions with respect to standards and rollouts of technology often cause a lot of politics, angst, and strife — all at the expense of subscribers paying.

Why can’t the mobile operators adopt a hybrid of the Internet/Web model and give out a service for only a nominal fee? It would certainly get more subscribers willing to try and use the service. Take MMS for example, it was not until recently that interoperability occurred in the United States and the prices are *still* relatively expensive. That is why services like Flickr, Lifeblog, and Kodak Mobile Service have proven to be more popular than P2P (phone to phone) picture sharing.

So now they are leaving money on the table by letting web properties take over the distribution channel. Sounds like a leaky faucet of revenue. In the end though, the mobile operator needs to be a strong, but neutral marketing channel and distribution pipe for content and services.

In the same token, all this internetworking of WiFi, Cellular, etc, should be slightly more adept like the ATM networks (and ATM cards) in a way where I carry my network ID (mobile phone, notebook computer, wireless PDA) and I get one bill, but potentially some surcharges for out of network usage.

The scenario would be as such, I use my device on the road to make some calls on Verizon Wireless on the cellular network. I get to my destination where say, a T-Mobile HotSpot is available. Since higher bandwidth or perhaps, rate plans is my preference, my connection would switch over using a partnering or peering relationship to switch the bits to a different network. While I’m already accustom to paying to paying ATM surchages when I fill my gas, why not pay $0.001 to share the network? At the end of the month, I get one bill for *BITS* used, not minutes and surchages for flipping networks as I am mobile.

The glut of wireless networks, particularly in densely populated areas would allow me to literally traverse cities, hoping in and out of dozens, hundreds, if not thousands of networks. While mobile operators are always finding ways to increase APRU, perhaps one of the best ways is to grow the entire market, instead of constantly trying to steal shares away from the competitor. Just like the leaky faucet, some will make dribs and drabs of money, but overall it’s good for the industry growth and long-term viability.